1. Background:
In our Match Prediction and Betting Tip for the 4th T20 International Against New Zealand let’s first look at what went wrong in the 3rd T20 International.
Pakistan underestimated the New Zealand’s ability to chase totals and decided to bat first at Rawalpindi a ground which is well known as a chasing ground. To add to their woes they were about 35-40 runs below par. Babar Azam in the post match said they were short by 10 runs which is no where close to the reality.
New Zealand came up with clear plans and restricted Pakistan to a sub par total and Chapman who loves batting against Pakistan secured an easy win for the Kiwis. The Kiwis bowled really well with Ish Sodhi troubling the hosts more than they expected.
For Pakistan to win they need to get 3 things sorted:
a. Shaheen and Naseem should bowl well and show the world why they are world class pacers
b. Strike rates of Pakistan team should get better
c. Don’t drop catches, because Kiwis will give them chances they just need to take them.
2. Ground & Pitch:
The match will be played at Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore. Pakistan do not have a terrific record in the T20 Internationals here and have won 5 out of the last 10 matches played here. The last T20 International played here was against the Kiwis where Pakistan struggled to chase 163.
The pitch at this iconic ground played well in the recently conducted PSL and for a change was a ground where the teams scored big runs with the scores in the first innings at 195, 206, 187, 154, 138, 175, 211, 201 and 214. All the scores below 190 were chased down with ease which gives an indication that this is a ground where totals can be defended if you bat well in the first innings.
The last 5 Internationals that have been played here saw the scores of 163, 192, 182, 209 and 169 and 4 matches have been won by team batting first. So another indication that bat first, bat well and then defend is the key at Lahore.
3. Players To Watch For Pakistan:
One of the ways Pakistan can win is that their main bowling attack including Shaheen Shah Afridi and Naseem Shah need to bowl well. They were taken to cleaners at Rawalpindi by Chapman and Pakistan pacers need to make amends. Shaheen went at 11s and Naseem at 14s. With T20 World Cup around they would want to get in form.
Shadab Khan has contributed more with bat for Pakistan than ball. He struck 205 while batting and was the main reason why Pakistan posted a respectable total. However Pakistan would want him to take wickets. He went wicketless in the previous fixture and he would want to make amends.
Babar Azam is the key for Pakistan. He can not strike at 130 and not score big at the same time. If the Pakistan batting has to revolve around him he needs to stay till the end and score big. With Rizwan out for the rest of the series the batting will depend a lot on Babar Azam.
4. Players To Watch For New Zealand
Tim Robinson after a poor debut looked good in the previous fixture. If he manages to give the same start to the Kiwis like last time expect the visitors to do well.
Chapman won the game almost single handedly for the Kiwis. The fourth T20 will also depend a lot on him and Tim Seifert. Chapman, Seifert and Neesham are the key for New Zealand. If they have a good game they will challenge Pakistan yet again.
Jimmy Neesham is a terrific All rounder and it is surprising to see he not being part of the IPL. At 157 strike rate in the middle order he can do some damage. A lot will depend on Jimmy if NZ has to do well.
5. Betting Tips:
Run Lines were not open at the time of writing the post, however 10 over lines were hovering around 82.5 for Pakistan and 72.5 for New Zealand. If you really want to have a pre-match bet then Pakistan over 82.5 after 10 at 1.8 is a decent bet and probably the only bet at this stage that i would recommend.
I think based on the toss the run lines will open around 181.5. I think the match will have a middling total and would be around 185. My range 185-195 for this match without looking at the pitch.
Match Bet. At sportsbooks Pakistan is at 1.22 and for the right reasons. Despite their loss against New Zealand in the previous fixture expect them to come out hard this time around. They would be vary of the backlash. Pakistan to win.
Total Four Bet for Pakistan is at 15.5 @ 1.8. Pakistan are poor in hitting 6s. This is a good bet.